# Barrie Hiring Outlook: Forecast Data, October 2026

**Publisher:** Wells Talent & Co, Barrie, Ontario
**Author:** Jermaine Wellington
**Version:** 1.0, published 31 October 2026
**Licence:** Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
**Web page:** https://wellingtontalent.ca/barrie-hiring-outlook
**DOI:** https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23850457 (permanent copy on Zenodo)

Forecast job openings (vacancies) for July 2026 to June 2027, by occupation, for the Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie economic region of Ontario. This is the data behind the Barrie Hiring Outlook.

## Files

| File | What it holds |
|---|---|
| `barrie-hiring-outlook-2026-10.csv` | 608 rows: 152 occupations (plus the all-occupations total) × 4 forecast quarters |
| `barrie-hiring-outlook-2026-10-excluded.csv` | The 390 occupations left out, and why |
| `barrie-hiring-outlook-2026-10-README.md` | This file |

## Columns (main file)

| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| `region` | Always the Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie economic region. Statistics Canada does not publish Barrie on its own. |
| `occupation` | Occupation name, National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021 |
| `noc_2021_code` | NOC 2021 code; blank for the all-occupations total |
| `noc_level` | Level in the NOC hierarchy: broad category (1 digit) to unit group (5 digits) |
| `quarter` | Forecast quarter, 2026-Q3 to 2027-Q2 |
| `forecast_openings` | Forecast number of job vacancies in that quarter (point forecast) |
| `forecast_low_p10`, `forecast_high_p90` | 80% forecast range: the model expects the real figure inside it 8 times out of 10 |
| `openings_same_quarter_last_year` | Vacancies in the same quarter a year earlier, from Statistics Canada |
| `last_year_value_estimated` | `yes`: that value was estimated because Statistics Canada withheld it. `no`: the series has no estimated quarters. `possible`: the series has some estimated quarters and this value may be one of them. |
| `history_quarters` | Quarters of Statistics Canada history the forecast was based on |
| `history_quarters_estimated` | How many of those quarters were withheld by Statistics Canada and estimated |
| `last_published_quarter` | Latest quarter Statistics Canada had published when the forecast was made |

Quarters are calendar quarters: Q1 = January–March, Q3 = July–September.

## Method

1. Quarterly job vacancy counts by occupation for the Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie economic region, from Statistics Canada's Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, Table 14-10-0444-01, from 2015 to 2026-Q2.
2. Occupations were kept if they had at least 12 quarters of history and no more than a quarter of those quarters withheld by Statistics Canada. Withheld quarters were estimated by straight-line interpolation between neighbouring quarters.
3. Each occupation was forecast four quarters ahead with Google Research's TimesFM 2.5 (200M) time-series model, zero-shot, giving a point forecast and a 10th–90th percentile range.

## Reading it well

- A forecast, not a guarantee. Small occupations swing more, so their ranges are wide.
- Vacancies measure demand: how many positions employers were actively trying to fill. They do not measure how hard a role is to fill.
- Summing quarters counts a vacancy open for two quarters twice. Compare percentage changes, not totals.
- Statistics Canada rounds published vacancy counts, so figures that are not multiples of 5 are estimates or forecasts.

## Licence and credit

You may share and adapt this data for any purpose, including commercially, as long as you give credit:

> Barrie Hiring Outlook forecast data, Wells Talent & Co, October 2026, CC BY 4.0. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23850457

In academic or research work, cite it as:

> Wellington, J. (2026). Barrie Hiring Outlook: Forecast Data, October 2026 [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23850457

## Statistics Canada notice

Adapted from Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, Table 14-10-0444-01, reference period 2015 to second quarter 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

The Statistics Canada data is used under the Statistics Canada Open Licence (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/reference/licence). The CC BY 4.0 licence above applies to the forecasts and the work of Wells Talent & Co; it does not change the terms on which Statistics Canada licenses its own data.

## Contact

admin@wellingtontalent.ca · 647 274 3578